Sunday, January 17, 2021

Global – 92,300,000/2,000,000; USA – 23,700,000/395,000 We may have reached the peak of the surge upon a surge 1. For the first time in weeks all indicators except fatalities are flat or declining. This suggests with full data triangulation that we have reached the post Holiday peak in most of the country and declines should continue with continued mitigation. These gains can be sustained and can accelerate if behavior change holds 2. Test positivity is declining. Testing rates have resumed to pre Holiday levels as for the first time week over week cases have declined from last week's high – but testing for asymptomatic cases must increase to sustain the gains. Finding the containing the silent spread will be key to holding the current gains. 3. Cases are declining or stable across the country (down 8.8%) • John Mascola and I presented to JZ and the Biden medical team the results from David Ho’s work on the UK and RSA mutants. (see above). We explained that this requires careful messaging since people would interpret incorrectly that this nullifies the vaccine which it does not. JZ has tasked me to write a 2-paragraph description to send to Biden tonight. I did so and now we have a meeting tomorrow AM to discuss possibility of travel restrictions from RSA and Brazil. PRESS: Meet the Press (NBC) with Chuck Todd; Che Tempo Che Fa Italian Sunday TV Show; MSNBC Lawrence O’Donnell