Saturday, February 8, 2020

Numbers today: 34,867/724. First USCit died in Wuhan. Much press about this and the cruise ships in Japan and Bayonne. Infections and quarantine of the Japan ship (61 so far, including some USCits. 10 people under quarantine from airport screening at the 11 airports. People on Japanese ship getting cabin fever with quarantine. People on Bayonne ship have all been released and the Chinese nationals on the ship are going home. Tom Frieden called me this AM and we discussed various aspects of the outbreak. He and I are on the same page in thinking tht this is acting like a bad influenza in its transmissibility and that the denominator is much greater than 34,867 (above) making the case fatality rate (CFR) more like 0.2-0.3 % rather than 2.0%. PRESS: FOX and Friends; WTOP Radio; MSNBC