Wednesday, November 23, 2005

Press activity still very heavy. I appeared today on the Diane Rehm Show and CNN’s “The Situation Room”. Michael Osterholm sent me an e-mail saying that he was concerned that I was saying on the air that the probability of an H5N1 pandemic this winter is low. He says that “health reporters” are e-mailing saying that I am giving confusing messages. I am absolutely certain that the “health reporter” in question is Laurie Garrett who is inherently hysterical. I am disappointed in Michael since it is very clear that I am saying that the probability of a pandemic (in the broad sense – any new virus) occurring is very high based on historical precedence. However, the probability of there being an H5N1 pandemic of the scale of the 1918 Influenza over the next month or two is low. NONETHELESS, we must assume the worse case scenario and prepare as if it will happen in its worse form and it will happen soon. I have been very consistent about this. I am actually asking the actuarial and probability people like Don Burke to figure out if we can add some science to this concept.